To Contain or to Transform: Algerian Preventive Diplomacy in the Libyan Crisis (2011–2026) Pour contenir ou transformer:La diplomatie préventive algérienne dans la crise libyenne (2011–2026)

Abstract

Since 2011, the Libyan crisis has tested Algeria’s doctrine of non-interference and political settlement. Situating Algeria’s role within the literature on preventive diplomacy and international mediation, this article argues that diplomatic presence, measured by the initiatives and meetings a mediator convenes, does not necessarily translate into influence over the settlement. Combining structured, focused comparison with process tracing across five phases (2011–2026), it identifies a structural paradox: Algeria contained security spillover and preserved principled credibility among Libyan parties, but could not convert that credibility into binding leverage in an arena crowded with materially stronger actors. Developments in 2025–2026 confirm the pattern: Algeria revived the tripartite neighbourhood mechanism with Egypt and Tunisia, yet the main breakthrough, the August 2026 agreement to hold elections within 24 months, came through the UN track alongside US economic incentives. In preventive diplomacy, containing a crisis is not the same as transforming it.